#202 Cal Poly-Humboldt (11-12)

avg: 1047.02  •  sd: 70.19  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
225 Oregon-B Win 12-11 1080.44 Jan 25th Pac Con 2025
247 Oregon State-B Win 11-10 1002.6 Jan 25th Pac Con 2025
381 Portland State Win 15-7 839.95 Jan 25th Pac Con 2025
83 Simon Fraser Win 15-10 1972.26 Jan 26th Pac Con 2025
1 Oregon** Loss 1-15 1774.43 Ignored Jan 26th Pac Con 2025
23 Western Washington** Loss 1-15 1370.42 Ignored Jan 26th Pac Con 2025
126 San Jose State Loss 3-13 740.19 Feb 8th Stanford Open Mens
281 California-B Win 13-1 1361.82 Feb 8th Stanford Open Mens
109 San Diego State Loss 5-9 881.73 Feb 9th Stanford Open Mens
174 California-Santa Cruz-B Win 9-8 1287.98 Feb 9th Stanford Open Mens
262 Nevada-Reno Win 11-8 1187.73 Feb 9th Stanford Open Mens
279 Chico State Win 11-8 1132.1 Mar 15th Silicon Valley Rally 2025
126 San Jose State Loss 7-11 873.3 Mar 15th Silicon Valley Rally 2025
281 California-B Win 13-9 1180.39 Mar 15th Silicon Valley Rally 2025
174 California-Santa Cruz-B Loss 8-11 797.37 Mar 15th Silicon Valley Rally 2025
126 San Jose State Loss 7-10 950.53 Mar 16th Silicon Valley Rally 2025
279 Chico State Win 10-7 1156.16 Mar 16th Silicon Valley Rally 2025
46 Stanford Loss 8-12 1300.39 Apr 12th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
8 California-Santa Cruz** Loss 4-15 1550.25 Ignored Apr 12th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
175 California-Davis Loss 7-12 642.13 Apr 12th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
126 San Jose State Loss 9-10 1215.19 Apr 13th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
262 Nevada-Reno Loss 9-10 697.12 Apr 13th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
279 Chico State Win 11-9 1015.7 Apr 13th NorCal D I Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)