#19 Washington University (8-5)

avg: 1641.47  •  sd: 68.7  •  top 16/20: 71.6%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
4 Brigham Young Loss 10-13 1575.04 Jan 31st Florida Warm Up 2025
25 Brown Win 13-4 2131.36 Jan 31st Florida Warm Up 2025
119 Florida State** Win 13-2 1286.28 Ignored Jan 31st Florida Warm Up 2025
57 Alabama-Huntsville Win 13-7 1754.18 Feb 1st Florida Warm Up 2025
61 Cornell Win 13-7 1732.77 Feb 1st Florida Warm Up 2025
34 Michigan Win 13-8 1924.4 Feb 1st Florida Warm Up 2025
10 Texas Loss 9-12 1460.2 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2025
6 Massachusetts Loss 9-13 1452.69 Feb 2nd Florida Warm Up 2025
57 Alabama-Huntsville Win 11-7 1663.55 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
69 Tennessee Win 13-5 1730.93 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
74 Michigan State Win 13-6 1698.95 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
22 Penn State Loss 6-8 1282.6 Feb 16th Queen City Tune Up 2025
35 South Carolina Loss 10-11 1299.74 Feb 16th Queen City Tune Up 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)