#151 North Carolina-B (10-9)

avg: 689.22  •  sd: 73.45  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
42 Duke Loss 8-15 1000.69 Jan 25th Carolina Kickoff 2025
258 Emory-B** Win 15-0 286.02 Ignored Jan 25th Carolina Kickoff 2025
9 North Carolina** Loss 1-15 1522.91 Ignored Jan 25th Carolina Kickoff 2025
69 North Carolina State** Loss 5-15 694.32 Ignored Jan 25th Carolina Kickoff 2025
78 Appalachian State Loss 5-11 615.16 Jan 26th Carolina Kickoff 2025
99 Emory Loss 7-10 685.67 Jan 26th Carolina Kickoff 2025
115 Cedarville Loss 6-7 822.08 Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
149 Davidson Loss 4-7 208.36 Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
49 Kenyon** Loss 2-11 898.8 Ignored Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
187 Wake Forest Loss 4-6 129.2 Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
211 Georgetown-B Win 11-1 874.31 Feb 16th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
212 Georgia-B Win 11-0 872.62 Feb 16th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
211 Georgetown-B Win 10-7 663.97 Apr 12th Atlantic Coast Dev Womens Conferences 2025
238 William & Mary-B Win 8-4 640.63 Apr 12th Atlantic Coast Dev Womens Conferences 2025
226 South Carolina-B Win 9-6 606.03 Apr 12th Atlantic Coast Dev Womens Conferences 2025
260 Virginia-B** Win 12-3 190.42 Ignored Apr 12th Atlantic Coast Dev Womens Conferences 2025
252 American-B** Win 13-1 539.65 Ignored Apr 13th Atlantic Coast Dev Womens Conferences 2025
211 Georgetown-B Win 8-4 839.11 Apr 13th Atlantic Coast Dev Womens Conferences 2025
226 South Carolina-B Win 12-5 787.46 Apr 13th Atlantic Coast Dev Womens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)