#78 Appalachian State (15-13)

avg: 1215.16  •  sd: 73.19  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
99 Emory Win 15-1 1675.33 Jan 25th Carolina Kickoff 2025
69 North Carolina State Loss 10-11 1169.32 Jan 25th Carolina Kickoff 2025
258 Emory-B** Win 15-0 286.02 Ignored Jan 25th Carolina Kickoff 2025
9 North Carolina** Loss 5-15 1522.91 Ignored Jan 26th Carolina Kickoff 2025
42 Duke Loss 8-12 1124.34 Jan 26th Carolina Kickoff 2025
151 North Carolina-B Win 11-5 1289.22 Jan 26th Carolina Kickoff 2025
31 Pittsburgh Loss 9-13 1275.65 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
3 Tufts** Loss 0-13 1888.77 Ignored Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
21 Virginia** Loss 4-12 1301.06 Ignored Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
126 North Carolina-Wilmington Win 7-6 972.29 Feb 16th Queen City Tune Up 2025
258 Emory-B** Win 13-0 286.02 Ignored Mar 29th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
155 Berry Win 10-2 1277.43 Mar 29th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
219 Florida Tech** Win 13-0 816.79 Ignored Mar 29th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
81 Tennessee Win 11-7 1663.82 Mar 29th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
80 Case Western Reserve Win 14-4 1801.55 Mar 30th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
33 Georgia Tech Loss 8-13 1155.45 Mar 30th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
89 Williams Win 12-7 1639.25 Mar 30th Needle in a Ho Stack 2025
9 North Carolina** Loss 3-13 1522.91 Ignored Apr 12th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2025
159 Charleston Win 13-2 1265 Apr 12th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2025
126 North Carolina-Wilmington Win 10-9 972.29 Apr 12th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2025
83 Clemson Loss 8-12 722.51 Apr 12th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2025
159 Charleston Win 15-1 1265 Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2025
42 Duke Loss 9-13 1146.93 Apr 13th Carolina D I Womens Conferences 2025
9 North Carolina** Loss 4-15 1522.91 Ignored Apr 26th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2025
57 James Madison Loss 5-10 832.14 Apr 26th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2025
102 Virginia Tech Loss 11-12 924.35 Apr 26th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2025
126 North Carolina-Wilmington Win 13-10 1175.43 Apr 26th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2025
159 Charleston Win 12-5 1265 Apr 27th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)