#46 Carleton College-Eclipse (14-4)

avg: 1538.86  •  sd: 77.82  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
61 British Columbia-B Loss 10-13 1049.9 Feb 1st Stanford Open Womens
164 Cal Poly-SLO-B** Win 13-4 1230.95 Ignored Feb 1st Stanford Open Womens
52 Oregon State Loss 8-9 1347.23 Feb 1st Stanford Open Womens
79 Portland Win 10-4 1806.76 Feb 2nd Stanford Open Womens
41 Southern California Win 10-8 1834.99 Feb 2nd Stanford Open Womens
68 Santa Clara Loss 5-7 968.33 Feb 2nd Stanford Open Womens
73 Colorado College Win 11-4 1860.16 Feb 8th DIII Grand Prix 2025
133 Claremont** Win 12-2 1411.23 Ignored Feb 8th DIII Grand Prix 2025
67 Lewis & Clark Win 12-4 1897.81 Feb 8th DIII Grand Prix 2025
116 Puget Sound Win 13-3 1543.82 Feb 8th DIII Grand Prix 2025
52 Oregon State Win 12-10 1710.35 Feb 9th DIII Grand Prix 2025
79 Portland Win 13-5 1806.76 Feb 9th DIII Grand Prix 2025
48 Whitman Win 12-9 1850.38 Feb 9th DIII Grand Prix 2025
173 Grinnell** Win 15-3 1192.63 Ignored Apr 12th North Central D III Womens Conferences 2025
192 St Olaf-B** Win 15-3 1070.42 Ignored Apr 12th North Central D III Womens Conferences 2025
87 Michigan Tech Win 15-3 1733.92 Apr 12th North Central D III Womens Conferences 2025
55 St Olaf Loss 10-14 1042.52 Apr 13th North Central D III Womens Conferences 2025
87 Michigan Tech Win 15-13 1348.1 Apr 13th North Central D III Womens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)