#181 Arizona (6-14)

avg: 532.91  •  sd: 55.52  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
114 Arizona State Loss 8-13 455.65 Jan 25th New Year Fest 2025
188 Colorado-B Win 8-6 793.85 Jan 25th New Year Fest 2025
77 Grand Canyon Loss 5-10 642.51 Jan 25th New Year Fest 2025
107 Denver Loss 8-11 661.7 Jan 25th New Year Fest 2025
242 Arizona-B Win 11-5 640.86 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2025
114 Arizona State Loss 5-8 498.21 Jan 26th New Year Fest 2025
220 Cal State-Long Beach Win 8-4 780.84 Feb 1st Presidents Day Qualifiers 2025
123 California-San Diego-B Loss 7-8 785.49 Feb 1st Presidents Day Qualifiers 2025
196 UCLA-B Win 7-4 958.65 Feb 1st Presidents Day Qualifiers 2025
30 UCLA** Loss 2-12 1114.42 Ignored Feb 1st Presidents Day Qualifiers 2025
40 California** Loss 3-11 981.98 Ignored Feb 2nd Presidents Day Qualifiers 2025
123 California-San Diego-B Loss 4-9 310.49 Feb 2nd Presidents Day Qualifiers 2025
251 Colorado College-B Win 15-6 553.91 Mar 1st Snow Melt 2025
73 Colorado College** Loss 5-15 660.16 Ignored Mar 1st Snow Melt 2025
107 Denver Loss 3-15 427.31 Mar 1st Snow Melt 2025
191 Colorado Mines Loss 11-13 241.61 Mar 2nd Snow Melt 2025
188 Colorado-B Win 9-8 618.36 Mar 2nd Snow Melt 2025
114 Arizona State Loss 3-15 351.81 Mar 2nd Snow Melt 2025
77 Grand Canyon** Loss 3-11 616.4 Ignored Apr 12th Desert D I Womens Conferences 2025
132 Northern Arizona Loss 5-9 283.95 Apr 12th Desert D I Womens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)