#8 Phoenix (7-4)

avg: 1905.03  •  sd: 55.97  •  top 16/20: 100%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
1 BENT Loss 8-10 1965.86 Jun 28th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge East
18 Outrage Win 15-6 2115.9 Jun 28th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge East
22 Siege Win 15-9 1826.63 Jun 28th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge East
7 Parcha Loss 12-15 1628.04 Jun 29th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge East
22 Siege Win 15-6 1911.15 Jun 29th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge East
10 Starling Win 15-11 2184.08 Jun 29th 2025 Pro Elite Challenge East
21 Flight Win 12-7 1893.87 Jul 12th Swamp Seasonal Invite
2 Brute Squad Loss 10-13 1878.31 Jul 12th Swamp Seasonal Invite
12 Grit Win 15-9 2138.44 Jul 12th Swamp Seasonal Invite
17 Ozone Win 12-10 1765.66 Jul 13th Swamp Seasonal Invite
4 Scandal Loss 11-15 1669.17 Jul 13th Swamp Seasonal Invite
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)