#111 Liberty (17-13)

avg: 1388.97  •  sd: 58.02  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
205 North Carolina State-B Win 10-6 1536.67 Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
226 West Virginia Win 10-5 1522.67 Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
334 South Carolina-B** Win 11-0 1160.45 Ignored Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
15 Davenport** Loss 4-11 1441.09 Ignored Feb 16th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
144 Oberlin Loss 6-7 1145.28 Feb 16th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
51 Cornell Loss 2-13 1106.16 Mar 1st Oak Creek Challenge 2025
213 SUNY-Albany Win 10-7 1402.08 Mar 1st Oak Creek Challenge 2025
113 West Chester Loss 2-7 775.96 Mar 1st Oak Creek Challenge 2025
330 SUNY-Cortland Win 11-5 1171.4 Mar 2nd Oak Creek Challenge 2025
98 SUNY-Buffalo Win 8-7 1582.75 Mar 2nd Oak Creek Challenge 2025
213 SUNY-Albany Win 11-4 1612.42 Mar 2nd Oak Creek Challenge 2025
63 Duke Win 14-7 2215.57 Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
140 George Mason Win 10-8 1550.79 Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
165 Massachusetts -B Win 11-10 1331.06 Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
264 Virginia Tech-B Win 12-6 1385.65 Mar 22nd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
105 Appalachian State Loss 12-15 1133.81 Mar 23rd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
96 Lehigh Win 12-10 1702.74 Mar 23rd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
69 North Carolina-Charlotte Win 11-6 2151.13 Mar 23rd Atlantic Coast Open 2025
58 James Madison Loss 9-14 1176.8 Apr 12th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2025
45 Virginia Tech Loss 7-8 1627.57 Apr 12th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2025
238 Virginia Commonwealth Win 9-7 1185.11 Apr 12th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2025
52 William & Mary Loss 11-12 1568.54 Apr 12th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2025
140 George Mason Win 11-9 1537.33 Apr 13th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2025
58 James Madison Loss 8-12 1209.52 Apr 13th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2025
369 Radford** Win 15-2 922.87 Ignored Apr 13th Virginia D I Mens Conferences 2025
69 North Carolina-Charlotte Loss 9-15 1088.96 Apr 26th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2025
3 North Carolina** Loss 4-15 1738.86 Ignored Apr 26th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2025
62 North Carolina State Loss 7-15 1033.63 Apr 26th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2025
48 North Carolina-Wilmington Loss 7-12 1210.75 Apr 26th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2025
173 East Carolina Win 12-11 1291.37 Apr 27th Atlantic Coast D I College Mens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)