#177 Minnesota-Duluth (7-11)

avg: 1155.35  •  sd: 84.12  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
103 Berry Loss 10-11 1319.9 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
128 Central Florida Loss 13-15 1113.49 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
229 Harvard Loss 10-12 700.91 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
158 Grinnell Loss 7-13 662.65 Mar 29th Old Capitol Open 2025
171 Northern Iowa Win 13-11 1408.1 Mar 29th Old Capitol Open 2025
156 Wisconsin-La Crosse Loss 9-13 817.14 Mar 29th Old Capitol Open 2025
258 DePaul Win 11-10 965.77 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2025
200 Nebraska Win 13-12 1181.52 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2025
206 Winona State Loss 7-9 752.84 Mar 30th Old Capitol Open 2025
5 Carleton College** Loss 6-15 1737.82 Ignored Apr 13th Northwoods D I Mens Conferences 2025
28 Minnesota** Loss 6-15 1267.14 Ignored Apr 13th Northwoods D I Mens Conferences 2025
5 Carleton College** Loss 2-15 1737.82 Ignored Apr 26th North Central D I College Mens Regionals 2025
110 Iowa Loss 11-12 1280.74 Apr 26th North Central D I College Mens Regionals 2025
145 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Win 15-11 1651.08 Apr 26th North Central D I College Mens Regionals 2025
200 Nebraska Win 15-6 1656.52 Apr 26th North Central D I College Mens Regionals 2025
320 Minnesota-C Win 15-8 1161.11 Apr 27th North Central D I College Mens Regionals 2025
200 Nebraska Loss 9-11 807.32 Apr 27th North Central D I College Mens Regionals 2025
223 Wisconsin-B Win 15-9 1491.54 Apr 27th North Central D I College Mens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)