#164 Truman State (19-9)

avg: 1207.14  •  sd: 51.11  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
368 Dallas** Win 13-4 929.59 Ignored Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2025
87 Missouri S&T Loss 8-13 994.92 Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2025
274 Oklahoma Win 12-4 1387.3 Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2025
191 Oklahoma State Win 11-8 1449.4 Feb 22nd Dust Bowl 2025
160 Kansas Win 10-7 1606.86 Feb 23rd Dust Bowl 2025
191 Oklahoma State Win 13-4 1683.79 Feb 23rd Dust Bowl 2025
242 Grace Win 13-2 1496.1 Mar 22nd Meltdown 2025
297 Loyola-Chicago Win 8-7 826.18 Mar 22nd Meltdown 2025
302 Wisconsin-Stevens Point Win 13-5 1269.31 Mar 22nd Meltdown 2025
132 Kenyon Win 8-7 1440.76 Mar 23rd Meltdown 2025
72 St Olaf Loss 6-10 1093.72 Mar 23rd Meltdown 2025
195 John Brown Win 12-11 1194.63 Mar 29th Free State Classic 2025
160 Kansas Loss 7-15 617.19 Mar 29th Free State Classic 2025
324 Kansas State Win 15-11 968.32 Mar 29th Free State Classic 2025
191 Oklahoma State Loss 13-15 869.61 Mar 29th Free State Classic 2025
259 Colorado State-B Win 15-2 1440.19 Mar 30th Free State Classic 2025
160 Kansas Win 13-10 1545.34 Mar 30th Free State Classic 2025
191 Oklahoma State Win 12-9 1429.16 Mar 30th Free State Classic 2025
288 Harding Win 11-8 1110.95 Apr 12th Ozarks D III Mens Conferences 2025
195 John Brown Win 12-11 1194.63 Apr 12th Ozarks D III Mens Conferences 2025
87 Missouri S&T Loss 4-13 891.08 Apr 12th Ozarks D III Mens Conferences 2025
57 Oklahoma Christian Loss 4-13 1056.39 Apr 12th Ozarks D III Mens Conferences 2025
288 Harding Win 11-6 1292.03 Apr 13th Ozarks D III Mens Conferences 2025
195 John Brown Loss 8-10 806.97 Apr 13th Ozarks D III Mens Conferences 2025
87 Missouri S&T Loss 11-15 1109.92 Apr 26th South Central D III College Mens Regionals 2025
57 Oklahoma Christian Loss 7-10 1266.72 Apr 26th South Central D III College Mens Regionals 2025
117 Colorado Mines Win 11-10 1488.26 Apr 27th South Central D III College Mens Regionals 2025
288 Harding Win 15-6 1345.34 Apr 27th South Central D III College Mens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)