#79 Case Western Reserve (20-10)

avg: 1545.72  •  sd: 51.37  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
55 Maryland Loss 10-13 1349.23 Feb 1st Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
63 Duke Loss 11-13 1403.84 Feb 1st Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
3 North Carolina Loss 8-13 1842.7 Feb 1st Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
60 Carleton College-CHOP Win 15-12 1946.86 Feb 2nd Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
33 Elon Win 13-10 2153.81 Feb 2nd Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
63 Duke Win 13-10 1960.82 Feb 2nd Carolina Kickoff mens 2025
115 RIT Win 11-9 1616.21 Mar 1st Oak Creek Challenge 2025
330 SUNY-Cortland** Win 13-0 1171.4 Ignored Mar 1st Oak Creek Challenge 2025
208 Towson Win 10-6 1520.96 Mar 1st Oak Creek Challenge 2025
96 Lehigh Win 12-7 1985.13 Mar 2nd Oak Creek Challenge 2025
155 Johns Hopkins Win 8-7 1363.52 Mar 2nd Oak Creek Challenge 2025
149 Rutgers Loss 9-10 1138.64 Mar 2nd Oak Creek Challenge 2025
149 Rutgers Win 9-8 1388.64 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
51 Cornell Loss 8-9 1581.16 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
142 Pittsburgh-B Win 15-4 1884.99 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
52 William & Mary Win 11-10 1818.54 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
98 SUNY-Buffalo Loss 8-9 1332.75 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
74 Temple Loss 9-13 1165.5 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
167 Dayton Win 12-5 1791.95 Apr 12th Ohio D I Mens Conferences 2025
244 Kent State** Win 13-1 1491.15 Ignored Apr 12th Ohio D I Mens Conferences 2025
179 Ohio Win 12-9 1496.57 Apr 12th Ohio D I Mens Conferences 2025
263 Toledo Win 12-8 1261.58 Apr 12th Ohio D I Mens Conferences 2025
76 Ohio State Loss 8-13 1073.85 Apr 13th Ohio D I Mens Conferences 2025
167 Dayton Win 15-14 1316.95 Apr 13th Ohio D I Mens Conferences 2025
76 Ohio State Loss 12-14 1349.05 Apr 13th Ohio D I Mens Conferences 2025
88 Carnegie Mellon Win 13-12 1614.55 Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
179 Ohio Win 15-8 1716.02 Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
142 Pittsburgh-B Win 13-9 1703.56 Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
113 West Chester Win 15-12 1676.45 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
76 Ohio State Loss 10-12 1331.89 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)