#88 Carnegie Mellon (16-13)

avg: 1489.55  •  sd: 52.3  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
181 American Win 12-6 1718.27 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
173 East Carolina Win 9-7 1445.71 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
93 Yale Win 12-9 1822.12 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
58 James Madison Loss 9-11 1401.46 Jan 25th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
70 Dartmouth Win 14-13 1720.96 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
52 William & Mary Loss 9-15 1178.06 Jan 26th Mid Atlantic Warm Up 2025
102 Alabama Win 13-9 1865.87 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
48 North Carolina-Wilmington Loss 9-10 1606.26 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
34 South Carolina Loss 6-13 1215.3 Feb 15th Queen City Tune Up 2025
67 Auburn Win 7-6 1746.8 Feb 16th Queen City Tune Up 2025
53 Purdue Loss 7-10 1303.22 Feb 16th Queen City Tune Up 2025
55 Maryland Loss 11-15 1296.21 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
147 SUNY-Binghamton Win 10-9 1391.17 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
74 Temple Win 9-8 1709.07 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
93 Yale Win 12-11 1601.76 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
55 Maryland Loss 8-10 1414.71 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
52 William & Mary Win 11-8 2059.15 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
74 Temple Loss 5-7 1255.92 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
22 Penn State Win 15-13 2186.64 Apr 12th West Penn D I Mens Conferences 2025
337 Pennsylvania Western Win 15-11 932.27 Apr 12th West Penn D I Mens Conferences 2025
226 West Virginia Win 15-8 1513.58 Apr 13th West Penn D I Mens Conferences 2025
22 Penn State Loss 9-15 1456.98 Apr 13th West Penn D I Mens Conferences 2025
142 Pittsburgh-B Win 12-11 1409.99 Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
179 Ohio Win 15-5 1751.21 Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
79 Case Western Reserve Loss 12-13 1420.72 Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
167 Dayton Win 12-9 1537.31 Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
30 Pittsburgh Loss 8-15 1291.48 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
74 Temple Loss 9-15 1068.58 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
113 West Chester Loss 14-15 1250.96 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Mens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)