#185 SUNY-Stony Brook (4-15)

avg: 518.93  •  sd: 49.92  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
243 Columbia-B Win 3-2 165.54 Mar 8th Strong Island Invitational
91 NYU Loss 3-8 511.74 Mar 8th Strong Island Invitational
137 Rutgers Loss 3-6 246.05 Mar 8th Strong Island Invitational
243 Columbia-B Win 6-3 587.24 Mar 9th Strong Island Invitational
89 Williams Loss 2-9 518.74 Mar 9th Strong Island Invitational
137 Rutgers Loss 5-13 192.75 Mar 9th Strong Island Invitational
76 Columbia** Loss 1-15 619.45 Ignored Apr 12th Eastern Metro East D I Womens Conferences 2025
243 Columbia-B Win 9-1 640.54 Apr 12th Eastern Metro East D I Womens Conferences 2025
64 Connecticut** Loss 3-9 719.82 Ignored Apr 12th Eastern Metro East D I Womens Conferences 2025
91 NYU Loss 2-15 511.74 Apr 12th Eastern Metro East D I Womens Conferences 2025
261 Rowan** Win 11-1 144.38 Ignored Apr 13th Eastern Metro East D I Womens Conferences 2025
103 Yale Loss 3-11 441.01 Apr 13th Eastern Metro East D I Womens Conferences 2025
137 Rutgers Loss 3-7 192.75 Apr 13th Eastern Metro East D I Womens Conferences 2025
64 Connecticut** Loss 5-12 719.82 Ignored Apr 26th Metro East D I College Womens Regionals 2025
112 SUNY-Binghamton Loss 7-9 690.84 Apr 26th Metro East D I College Womens Regionals 2025
90 SUNY-Buffalo Loss 6-8 815.85 Apr 26th Metro East D I College Womens Regionals 2025
103 Yale Loss 2-10 441.01 Apr 26th Metro East D I College Womens Regionals 2025
112 SUNY-Binghamton Loss 6-7 845.18 Apr 27th Metro East D I College Womens Regionals 2025
160 Syracuse Loss 4-5 538.44 Apr 27th Metro East D I College Womens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)