#180 Michigan-B (7-11)

avg: 542.67  •  sd: 79.37  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
213 Dayton Win 7-4 765.06 Mar 29th Corny Classic College 2025
131 Grand Valley Loss 2-8 214.79 Mar 29th Corny Classic College 2025
66 Illinois** Loss 2-7 708.53 Ignored Mar 29th Corny Classic College 2025
197 Indiana Loss 5-6 329.59 Mar 30th Corny Classic College 2025
144 Knox Loss 5-6 600.69 Mar 30th Corny Classic College 2025
200 Truman State Win 9-8 558.99 Mar 30th Corny Classic College 2025
131 Grand Valley Loss 5-11 214.79 Apr 12th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2025
110 Michigan State Loss 5-10 432.13 Apr 12th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2025
254 Purdue-B** Win 12-2 485.98 Ignored Apr 12th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2025
17 Notre Dame** Loss 0-13 1370.55 Ignored Apr 12th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2025
197 Indiana Win 9-6 873.16 Apr 13th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2025
246 Notre Dame-B Win 13-2 620.99 Apr 13th Eastern Great Lakes D I Womens Conferences 2025
63 Chicago Loss 5-11 744.44 Apr 26th Great Lakes D I Womens Regionals 2025
17 Notre Dame** Loss 2-13 1370.55 Ignored Apr 26th Great Lakes D I Womens Regionals 2025
246 Notre Dame-B Win 10-4 620.99 Apr 26th Great Lakes D I Womens Regionals 2025
117 Northwestern Loss 4-9 339.88 Apr 26th Great Lakes D I Womens Regionals 2025
131 Grand Valley Loss 8-10 552.12 Apr 27th Great Lakes D I Womens Regionals 2025
246 Notre Dame-B Win 15-0 620.99 Apr 27th Great Lakes D I Womens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)