#6 Washington (19-10)

avg: 2262.76  •  sd: 65.97  •  top 16/20: 100%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
1 British Columbia Loss 7-13 2018.41 Jan 25th Santa Barbara Invite 2025
12 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 10-11 1958.14 Jan 25th Santa Barbara Invite 2025
14 California-Santa Cruz Win 13-11 2270.38 Jan 25th Santa Barbara Invite 2025
30 UCLA Win 7-6 1839.42 Jan 26th Santa Barbara Invite 2025
40 California Win 13-10 1910.13 Mar 1st Stanford Invite 2025 Womens
10 California-San Diego Loss 9-12 1770.21 Mar 1st Stanford Invite 2025 Womens
31 Pittsburgh Win 12-6 2273.53 Mar 1st Stanford Invite 2025 Womens
30 UCLA Win 13-5 2314.42 Mar 1st Stanford Invite 2025 Womens
10 California-San Diego Win 11-9 2364.78 Mar 2nd Stanford Invite 2025 Womens
25 Northeastern Win 10-5 2376.43 Mar 2nd Stanford Invite 2025 Womens
8 Stanford Loss 8-9 2009.37 Mar 2nd Stanford Invite 2025 Womens
19 Brigham Young Win 15-11 2316.13 Mar 21st Northwest Challenge 2025
12 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 8-10 1820.47 Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025
2 Carleton College Loss 8-11 2203.2 Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025
54 Colorado State** Win 13-3 2052.17 Ignored Mar 22nd Northwest Challenge 2025
4 Colorado Loss 5-11 1728.58 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge 2025
11 Michigan Loss 8-9 1988.92 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge 2025
9 North Carolina Win 11-4 2722.91 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge 2025
8 Stanford Win 11-7 2601.27 Mar 23rd Northwest Challenge 2025
7 Oregon Win 15-7 2796.79 Apr 12th Cascadia D I Womens Conferences 2025
52 Oregon State Win 15-8 2037.04 Apr 12th Cascadia D I Womens Conferences 2025
1 British Columbia Loss 9-15 2060.46 Apr 13th Cascadia D I Womens Conferences 2025
16 Victoria Win 14-10 2389.4 Apr 13th Cascadia D I Womens Conferences 2025
61 British Columbia-B** Win 13-2 1978.04 Ignored May 3rd Northwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
167 Montana State** Win 13-0 1222.57 Ignored May 3rd Northwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
15 Utah Win 13-5 2611.59 May 3rd Northwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
16 Victoria Win 12-9 2336.07 May 3rd Northwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
1 British Columbia Loss 10-12 2337.82 May 4th Northwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
7 Oregon Win 15-8 2761.6 May 4th Northwest D I College Womens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)