#45 American (21-11)

avg: 1542.41  •  sd: 71.75  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
22 Ohio State Loss 8-13 1396.9 Feb 22nd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
5 Vermont** Loss 4-15 1689.71 Ignored Feb 22nd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
33 Georgia Tech Win 11-10 1776.61 Feb 22nd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
34 Cornell Win 10-8 1904.09 Feb 23rd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
20 Pennsylvania Loss 6-10 1416.77 Feb 23rd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
17 Notre Dame Win 11-9 2219.76 Feb 23rd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
32 Ohio Win 12-10 1909.88 Feb 23rd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
244 Pennsylvania-B** Win 13-0 635.03 Ignored Mar 1st Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
138 George Washington Win 9-4 1391.3 Mar 1st Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
119 Brown-B Loss 6-8 636.96 Mar 1st Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
53 Maryland Win 5-2 2057.11 Mar 1st Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
141 Catholic** Win 10-3 1334.02 Ignored Mar 2nd Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
53 Maryland Win 9-3 2057.11 Mar 2nd Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
36 Haverford/Bryn Mawr Win 10-9 1744.05 Mar 2nd Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
35 Wisconsin Loss 6-12 1054.49 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
24 Minnesota Loss 7-9 1543.79 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
38 MIT Loss 7-12 1068.3 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
37 William & Mary Win 9-7 1882.21 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
75 Mount Holyoke Win 11-8 1588.41 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
34 Cornell Loss 6-8 1340.93 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
55 St Olaf Win 5-2 2041.22 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
230 Johns Hopkins** Win 12-0 755.69 Ignored Apr 12th Colonial D I Womens Conferences 2025
138 George Washington** Win 11-3 1391.3 Ignored Apr 12th Colonial D I Womens Conferences 2025
53 Maryland Loss 7-13 899.58 Apr 12th Colonial D I Womens Conferences 2025
138 George Washington** Win 14-1 1391.3 Ignored Apr 13th Colonial D I Womens Conferences 2025
53 Maryland Win 8-7 1582.11 Apr 13th Colonial D I Womens Conferences 2025
126 North Carolina-Wilmington** Win 14-6 1447.29 Ignored Apr 26th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2025
60 South Carolina Win 11-8 1750.59 Apr 26th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2025
26 Georgetown Loss 5-13 1201 Apr 26th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2025
102 Virginia Tech Win 14-7 1632.24 Apr 26th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2025
21 Virginia Loss 7-10 1511.39 Apr 27th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2025
57 James Madison Win 8-6 1706.53 Apr 27th Atlantic Coast D I College Womens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)