#20 Pennsylvania (20-8)

avg: 1912.93  •  sd: 47.52  •  top 16/20: 55.9%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
12 Cal Poly-SLO Loss 6-7 1958.14 Jan 25th Santa Barbara Invite 2025
7 Oregon Loss 6-13 1596.79 Jan 25th Santa Barbara Invite 2025
23 California-Davis Win 7-6 2000.64 Jan 26th Santa Barbara Invite 2025
16 Victoria Loss 6-7 1865.7 Jan 26th Santa Barbara Invite 2025
62 Brown Win 10-7 1740.94 Feb 22nd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
17 Notre Dame Loss 7-8 1845.55 Feb 22nd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
21 Virginia Win 9-6 2319.63 Feb 22nd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
45 American Win 10-6 2038.57 Feb 23rd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
22 Ohio State Loss 10-11 1768.06 Feb 23rd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
21 Virginia Loss 8-11 1535.45 Feb 23rd 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 2
26 Georgetown Win 11-6 2347.7 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
53 Maryland Win 10-7 1846.78 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
25 Northeastern Win 12-8 2243.68 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
3 Tufts Loss 6-13 1888.77 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
42 Duke Win 11-5 2165.5 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
36 Haverford/Bryn Mawr Loss 8-9 1494.05 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
35 Wisconsin Win 8-7 1758.8 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
70 Carnegie Mellon** Win 13-5 1879.15 Ignored Apr 12th Pennsylvania D I Womens Conferences 2025
109 Temple** Win 13-1 1621.69 Ignored Apr 12th Pennsylvania D I Womens Conferences 2025
74 Penn State Win 12-8 1700.89 Apr 13th Pennsylvania D I Womens Conferences 2025
31 Pittsburgh Win 9-8 1819.22 Apr 13th Pennsylvania D I Womens Conferences 2025
70 Carnegie Mellon Win 8-5 1732.75 Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2025
122 Cincinnati** Win 11-4 1511.56 Ignored Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2025
32 Ohio Win 6-5 1796.76 Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2025
109 Temple** Win 12-3 1621.69 Ignored Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2025
80 Case Western Reserve Win 13-7 1759.09 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2025
32 Ohio Win 13-9 2090.33 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2025
22 Ohio State Win 13-8 2389.22 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)