#257 Illinois-B (14-17)

avg: 845.74  •  sd: 55.31  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
114 Denver Loss 3-9 775.42 Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
33 Elon** Loss 2-11 1225.66 Ignored Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
198 North Carolina-B Loss 6-9 643.08 Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
179 Ohio Loss 5-10 577.31 Feb 15th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
221 Michigan-B Win 9-6 1397.93 Feb 16th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
239 Wake Forest Loss 5-7 576.63 Feb 16th 2025 Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1
313 Washington University-B Win 12-7 1146.88 Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
75 Iowa State** Loss 3-13 982.5 Ignored Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
151 Macalester Loss 3-10 661.32 Mar 1st Midwest Throwdown 2025
236 Illinois State Loss 7-12 387.54 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
97 Missouri** Loss 1-13 859.97 Ignored Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
136 Wisconsin-Eau Claire Loss 5-12 706.29 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
223 Wisconsin-B Win 13-6 1576.06 Mar 2nd Midwest Throwdown 2025
297 Loyola-Chicago Loss 4-6 335.57 Mar 29th Corny Classic College 2025
353 Purdue-B Win 9-7 699.54 Mar 29th Corny Classic College 2025
348 Wright State Win 9-5 984.56 Mar 29th Corny Classic College 2025
152 Lipscomb Loss 4-13 653.36 Mar 29th Corny Classic College 2025
397 Ohio-B Win 9-4 694.65 Mar 30th Corny Classic College 2025
207 Missouri State Win 8-7 1153.03 Mar 30th Corny Classic College 2025
263 Toledo Win 7-6 945.43 Mar 30th Corny Classic College 2025
345 Chicago-B Win 13-9 910.63 Apr 12th Great Lakes Dev Mens Conferences 2025
372 Northwestern-B Win 13-3 898.6 Apr 12th Great Lakes Dev Mens Conferences 2025
268 Michigan State-B Loss 7-13 241.79 Apr 12th Great Lakes Dev Mens Conferences 2025
345 Chicago-B Win 15-12 792.56 Apr 13th Great Lakes Dev Mens Conferences 2025
358 Indiana-B Win 14-9 876.92 Apr 13th Great Lakes Dev Mens Conferences 2025
268 Michigan State-B Win 15-10 1252.93 Apr 13th Great Lakes Dev Mens Conferences 2025
157 Grand Valley Loss 10-13 904.44 Apr 26th Great Lakes D I Mens Regionals 2025
59 Illinois Loss 6-13 1050.19 Apr 26th Great Lakes D I Mens Regionals 2025
53 Purdue Loss 6-13 1092.88 Apr 26th Great Lakes D I Mens Regionals 2025
236 Illinois State Loss 9-15 392.57 Apr 27th Great Lakes D I Mens Regionals 2025
297 Loyola-Chicago Win 9-6 1119.75 Apr 27th Great Lakes D I Mens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)