#253 Brown-B (9-11)

avg: 857.11  •  sd: 59.07  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
90 Bowdoin** Loss 1-4 878.93 Ignored Mar 1st Garden State 2025
196 Haverford Loss 7-10 678.73 Mar 1st Garden State 2025
209 Penn State-B Loss 5-7 696.56 Mar 1st Garden State 2025
148 Rhode Island Loss 4-9 665.72 Mar 1st Garden State 2025
355 Army Win 12-7 934.36 Mar 2nd Garden State 2025
209 Penn State-B Loss 6-9 606.13 Mar 2nd Garden State 2025
293 Amherst Win 5-4 846.01 Mar 8th Grand Northeast Kickoff 2025
231 Colby Win 8-4 1492 Mar 8th Grand Northeast Kickoff 2025
185 Northeastern-B Loss 4-7 620.11 Mar 8th Grand Northeast Kickoff 2025
123 Bates Loss 5-8 890.89 Mar 9th Grand Northeast Kickoff 2025
376 New Hampshire Win 10-1 874.79 Mar 9th Grand Northeast Kickoff 2025
392 Middlebury-B** Win 13-0 738.34 Ignored Mar 9th Grand Northeast Kickoff 2025
231 Colby Loss 5-15 327.19 Mar 9th Grand Northeast Kickoff 2025
411 Boston University-B** Win 13-5 397.87 Ignored Apr 12th New England Dev Mens Conferences 2025
374 Harvard-B Win 11-4 887.2 Apr 12th New England Dev Mens Conferences 2025
91 Vermont-B Loss 7-12 957.78 Apr 12th New England Dev Mens Conferences 2025
185 Northeastern-B Loss 7-10 726.61 Apr 12th New England Dev Mens Conferences 2025
361 MIT-B Win 9-3 985.03 Apr 13th New England Dev Mens Conferences 2025
201 Tufts-B Win 9-7 1326.94 Apr 13th New England Dev Mens Conferences 2025
185 Northeastern-B Loss 9-11 867.07 Apr 13th New England Dev Mens Conferences 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)