#74 Penn State (13-17)

avg: 1259.73  •  sd: 58.77  •  top 16/20: 0%

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# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
57 James Madison Loss 3-10 806.04 Jan 25th Winta Binta Vinta 2025
22 Ohio State** Loss 1-12 1293.06 Ignored Jan 25th Winta Binta Vinta 2025
260 Virginia-B** Win 10-0 190.42 Ignored Jan 25th Winta Binta Vinta 2025
26 Georgetown Loss 4-8 1236.19 Jan 26th Winta Binta Vinta 2025
50 Liberty Win 7-6 1614.97 Jan 26th Winta Binta Vinta 2025
126 North Carolina-Wilmington Win 9-5 1376.35 Jan 26th Winta Binta Vinta 2025
141 Catholic Win 6-2 1334.02 Mar 1st Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
230 Johns Hopkins** Win 9-0 755.69 Ignored Mar 1st Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
238 William & Mary-B** Win 9-0 675.82 Ignored Mar 1st Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
138 George Washington Win 8-3 1391.3 Mar 2nd Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
36 Haverford/Bryn Mawr Loss 1-9 1019.05 Mar 2nd Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
53 Maryland Loss 6-9 1038.55 Mar 2nd Cherry Blossom Classic 2025
70 Carnegie Mellon Loss 5-7 951.01 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
53 Maryland Loss 4-6 1091.5 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
38 MIT Loss 6-10 1092.66 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
37 William & Mary Loss 7-8 1477.87 Mar 29th East Coast Invite 2025
25 Northeastern Loss 6-9 1383.96 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
113 West Chester Win 10-6 1448.13 Mar 30th East Coast Invite 2025
113 West Chester Win 7-5 1280.11 Apr 12th Pennsylvania D I Womens Conferences 2025
31 Pittsburgh Loss 2-13 1094.22 Apr 12th Pennsylvania D I Womens Conferences 2025
109 Temple Win 9-8 1146.69 Apr 12th Pennsylvania D I Womens Conferences 2025
70 Carnegie Mellon Loss 6-7 1154.15 Apr 13th Pennsylvania D I Womens Conferences 2025
20 Pennsylvania Loss 8-12 1471.78 Apr 13th Pennsylvania D I Womens Conferences 2025
80 Case Western Reserve Win 8-5 1655.16 Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2025
22 Ohio State** Loss 3-12 1293.06 Ignored Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2025
113 West Chester Win 9-2 1551.97 Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2025
31 Pittsburgh Loss 7-10 1304.55 Apr 26th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2025
80 Case Western Reserve Loss 6-9 782.99 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2025
122 Cincinnati Win 11-4 1511.56 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2025
32 Ohio Loss 9-15 1156.28 Apr 27th Ohio Valley D I College Womens Regionals 2025
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)