#280 Jacksonville State (5-11)

avg: 766.09  •  sd: 70.39  •  top 16/20: 0%

Click on a column to sort  • 
# Opponent Result Game Rating Status Date Event
341 Alabama-B Loss 12-13 394.63 Jan 25th T Town Throwdown XX
172 Alabama-Birmingham Loss 8-13 678.72 Jan 25th T Town Throwdown XX
99 Tennessee-Chattanooga** Loss 2-13 853.61 Ignored Jan 25th T Town Throwdown XX
186 Union (Tennessee) Loss 6-13 512.59 Jan 25th T Town Throwdown XX
341 Alabama-B Win 15-6 1119.63 Jan 26th T Town Throwdown XX
288 Harding Win 15-6 1345.34 Jan 26th T Town Throwdown XX
118 Mississippi State Loss 10-13 1029.1 Jan 26th T Town Throwdown XX
71 Florida Loss 6-13 990.96 Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
233 Georgia Southern Loss 7-9 639.26 Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
308 Sam Houston Win 11-8 1016.92 Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
130 LSU Loss 7-13 765.62 Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
283 Texas-San Antonio Loss 9-10 635.62 Feb 22nd Mardi Gras XXXVII
261 Florida Tech Loss 6-11 283.34 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
335 Florida-B Loss 6-7 433.56 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
374 Harvard-B Win 11-2 887.2 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
373 Nova Southeastern Win 9-4 894.19 Mar 15th Tally Classic XIX
**Blowout Eligible

FAQ

What is the uncertainty of the mean?
The uncertainty of the mean is equal to the standard deviation of the set of game ratings, divided by the square root of the number of games. We treated a team’s ranking as a normally distributed random variable, with the USAU ranking as the mean and the uncertainty of the ranking as the standard deviation
What's the algorithm again?
  1. Calculate uncertainy for USAU ranking averge
  2. Model ranking as a normal distribution around USAU averge with standard deviation equal to uncertainty
  3. Simulate seasons by drawing a rank for each team from their distribution. Note the teams in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  4. Sum the fractions for each region for how often each of it's teams appeared in the top 16 (club) or top 20 (college)
  5. Subtract one from each fraction for "autobids"
  6. Award remainings bids to the regions with the highest remaining fraction, subtracting one from the fraction each time a bid is awarded
Is there a longer explanation of all this?
There is an article on Ulitworld written by Scott Dunham and I that gives a little more context (though it probably was the thing that linked you here)